Success Or Statistic?

There are many paths leading to "success." Some people get there by earnestly pursuing education and career goals. Others find it by following their passions, solving problems, or doing humanitarian work. But what about those who find success without even trying?

We like to think that most successful people have worked hard for their success. But is that really true? There's a lot of evidence suggesting that some people start out on the lucky side of the equation and never know it. The truth is you can be born with a silver spoon in your mouth and never have to try for anything in life—while others have to fight tooth-and-nail for every little thing they earn. The difference between the two is simply luck.

However, there are exceptions to this rule. You can have all the talent in the world, and still not be able to score that elusive dream job or even a modest promotion. This discrepancy is often attributed to "path dependence." Path dependence refers to how a person's choices accumulate over the course of their career, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of success.

To illustrate path dependence with an example, let's consider two hypothetical college graduates—one who had easy access to influential mentors and jobs while in school, and one who had a more difficult time getting in with all the networks in place. Assuming the two students began their careers at the same time, chances are good that both will end up in the same jobs. This is because of the self-reinforcing cycle of success.

The first thing these two employees do is look for an opportunity to move up in the company. Again, if they start out at the same time and access equivalent opportunities, there's a good chance they'll both end up in similar jobs. But what if they had different experiences while in school?

If our first example graduate had easy access to influential mentors, she'll likely get into her dream job much earlier than her colleague who had to earn her way into success through backbreaking work—both before and after graduation. It's easy to imagine her getting the good job. Besides, without a degree in the industry, she'll be unable to keep up with the competition.

As for our second example graduate, chances are good that she will find herself in a branch of the company that doesn't suit her personality and interests. Thus, this graduate will likely end up finding her dream job one year after graduating school, without ever being able to move up into a better position—let alone followed by any upward mobility.

It's also easy to imagine our second example graduate getting stuck in an industry that isn't appropriate for her or working as hard as she can because she has nothing left to lose. In a sense, she may feel entitled to the position because she has no way of getting there otherwise, but her lack of success won't affect her self-esteem, which will most likely remain high.

This is because our second example graduate had an easier path to success through school, where she didn't have to fight tooth-and-nail for every little thing she earned. For this reason, success doesn't come as easily to this second graduate and thus her perception of entitlement won't be hurt. In fact, the inability to retain a sense of entitlement could help reinforce her belief that there's something wrong with her and increase her determination in the face of what should be a daunting situation.

Path dependence is not something that can be avoided. Imagine a firm that hires thousands of entry level applicants each year. Inevitably, many other graduates will have the path to success already laid out for them at the beginning of their careers—they'll just have to fall in line and work hard to keep up with it. The fewer paths there are, the harder it will be for them to attain success—and thus their sense that there's something wrong with them. If the firm allows new employees to do anything different from what everyone else has done before, they'll be well ahead of the game. This is why firms often take great pains not to promote anyone who doesn't meet their performance expectations.

But it's not only entry level employees that experience path dependence. Many people in the same job at the same company stay in their positions for years, even decades. After all, why move if you can work around it?

Even though path dependence is a pretty big problem, many people continue to overlook it or choose not to believe in its existence. The truth is we've all been victims of luck at some point. For example, I can think of at least a dozen occasions throughout my life when I managed to get lucky and get a job, or find a new intern position that was better than my last one despite having much less experience and far less qualifications than my competition.

Perhaps the most telling example of luck is the fact that I got lucky in the first place. If I hadn't met my wife, or if I had married someone not nearly as intelligent as her, I would've had a much harder time pursuing my dreams—and even if it worked out, chances are good that I wouldn't have gotten a job at all.

Luck is important to understand because it sheds light on the problem with self-reinforcing cycles of success. If someone who doesn't have access to effective networks gets stuck in an organization where they have no way of escaping, they'll feel like there's something wrong with them and work even harder just to prove their worth. Thus, the harder they work, the more they feel like a failure. This vicious cycle will repeat itself as long as they stay with the organization—and it doesn't matter whether or not they have any talent at all to help them succeed.

Therefore, while there are exceptions to this rule, you really do have to get lucky to get ahead in your career. If you don't believe me, just ask someone in a bad situation what happened and then imagine if it was your fault. If you can handle that thought then chances are good that you're no longer being held back by these self-reinforcing cycles of success. You may have to take a few shots at hitting the jackpot, but it's probably nothing compared to others who've had to take far more than that.

The question is: how do you get lucky?

Path dependence also applies in many stages in our lives. If a teenager gets a job at one of the more prestigious companies because he has friends there and access to influential mentors, it doesn't matter how good or bad his performance there is because this will be all they will know. If he's stuck there for 20 years, they'll still think of him as lucky because that's all they know.

And if a member of the military gets stuck in a position that doesn't suit their personality, or for that matter the military itself, chances are good that it will become clear to them at some point. This might lead them to ask themselves questions like whether or not they're making the right choice and could be far better off in a different position. If they continue to get burned out because they're not moving up into positions where they would be more effective, chances are good that one day they start asking themselves what's going on with these stifling paths.

Understandably, most people will never get lucky enough to ask such questions or have the opportunity to consider what's going on with their path dependence.

Conclusion: The Consequences of Path Dependence in Business, Education and Life

Ultimately, all individuals strive to live better lives, but oftentimes they end up living the same life that their predecessors lived because they don't have the right skill sets or network connections to break away. If you have a great idea for a business or product, there's no reason why you shouldn't pursue it—and if you're good at what you do then it stands to reason that you've been pretty lucky already.

Even so, don't expect your first attempt at hitting the jackpot to succeed.